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| Original Title: | Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets |
| ISBN: | 0812975219 (ISBN13: 9780812975215) |
| Edition Language: | English |
| Series: | Incerto #1 |
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Paperback | Pages: 368 pages Rating: 4.06 | 45078 Users | 1899 Reviews
Details Epithetical Books Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto #1)
| Title | : | Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto #1) |
| Author | : | Nassim Nicholas Taleb |
| Book Format | : | Paperback |
| Book Edition | : | Deluxe Edition |
| Pages | : | Pages: 368 pages |
| Published | : | August 23rd 2005 by Random House Trade Paperbacks (first published 2001) |
| Categories | : | Nonfiction. Economics. Business. Finance. Psychology. Philosophy. Science |
Explanation As Books Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto #1)
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile,and The Bed of Procrustes.Rating Epithetical Books Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto #1)
Ratings: 4.06 From 45078 Users | 1899 ReviewsNotice Epithetical Books Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto #1)
A nice thesis (humans are unable to correctly assess risk and probability and therefore fall into all kinds of traps) wrapped in pompous and befuddled writing. At times the logic and flow is so jumpy and flawed that I thought there was something wrong with my copy.There is something wrong almost constantly, but the biggest WTF moment came for me, when Taleb, who constantly reminds the reader that everybody else is a fool and it's just him who has insight and the tools to master probability,I love the theses that he has in the book, but jesus christ, this is horribly written.I think the powerful ideas could have been condensed down to a New Yorker length article: 1. We tend to see the "survivors"; by hiding those who have failed, our understanding of many systems is skewed.2. Leveraged betting on conventional wisdom provides consistent returns in the short run, but can explode when something weird happens (his "black swan idea").3. You can reproduce the results of many systems by
Yeah, you see. Ive just checked and most of the other reviews of this book do pretty much what I thought they would do. They complain about the tone. This guy is never going to win an award for modesty and he probably thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life. And it gets worse like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years: Work is the refuge of people who have nothing better to do, this guy reckons that if you work for more than an hour or so per day you are probably
This is the first book of INCERTO, the most polite, the simplest, and the best to start. I feel like I should read the remaining four(at least for now) again, and I'd love to.Nassim uses a great analogy, so simple that child can understand, and explain a quite complex problem with statistics. He also makes some laugh at people that use statistics but can't understand it, this makes this book even more readable. The best part is - there is no ghostwriter or editor, all the thoughts are said by
Again, I'm astounded by the quality of Taleb's writing. His theory is both scientific and poetic, his insights are always useful and reflect what I often experience in my life...the one thing that really impressed me in this book, however, was his ability to tell a great story. That's something I had forgotten about. Before I can truly judge this book, however, I do think I need to read it a second time. Taleb always has sharp provocative ideas, but they do need to be reflected on and digested.
"Expect the unexpected" -- an aphorism that almost completely summarises the book. Cliches exist for a reason, but 196 pages later I feel the point has been well made.Taleb is a stock market trader. As a trader, he believes that there is no way in general to predict the stock market -- that there are so many variables that the resulting stock price is indistinguishable from pure noise. Unfortunately, his profession is filled with people who believe that they *can* predict the market. In fact,
Yeah, you see. Ive just checked and most of the other reviews of this book do pretty much what I thought they would do. They complain about the tone. This guy is never going to win an award for modesty and he probably thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life. And it gets worse like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years: Work is the refuge of people who have nothing better to do, this guy reckons that if you work for more than an hour or so per day you are probably
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